INCONSISTANT WEATHER FORECASTS

[uripper]

The general forecasts for SEQ /Brisbane open waters for tomorrow morning Sat 03 Feb as at 10am Fri 02 Feb (today) were:

seabreeze.com.au
wind 8 / 15 knots seas 1.5-1.8m (interpreted from graphs)

buoyweather.com
wind 8 / 12 knots seas 5-8ft

bom.gov.au
20/25 knots, seas 2.2 metres north of Cape Moreton, E/SE 15/20 knots with seas 1.7 metres to the south

Wonder which one(s) will be most accurate??????
Lets see what the Bom readings will be at 10am Sat 03 Feb -
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ65117.html

[roz]

Hi Mal,

When I used to fish out off Tweed Heads I would ring up Point Danger Air Sea Rescue for a weather forecast/report, they would ask me if I wanted the NSW one or the QLD one.

Nine times out of ten the two would be quite different (for covering the same area), now being the eternal optimist I would always ask for the 'Best one for fishing'. I know the forecasters do their best and they do get it wrong, but a lot of the time they don't. I suppose I will appreciate it for what it is, a prediction.

Cheers Roz

[Jeremy]

I believe BUOY weather and seabreeze over BOM. BUOY weather and seabreeze tend to be pretty close and both got Australia day right over BOM. I am going out tomorrow based on BUOY weather and seabreeze, but I know the critics would have a field day for going out in the 20/25 knots forecast by BOM if things go pearshaped.

Jeremy

[finding_time]

I believe that the biggest problem with BOM forcasts is the range i covers Tweed heads_ Double Island point is to big an area to cover with just one forcast as if it blowing 20-25 knots on the Tweed but calm at Di the forcast has to 20-25 knots this is stupid i know that they sometimes break the forcast into nth of cape moreton sth cape moreton but this doesn't happen all that often.

If i'm leaving from Brisbane or mooloolabah i look at all three forecasts and go with bouy and seabreeze if i'm leaving from the tweed i'll use bom ( QLDand NSW) plus bouy and if i'm leaving from noosa i'll use Bom tweed to di plus Bom di to sandy cape and bouy this plus looking at a weather map and wave rider bouys generally give me a very good indication of whats going to happen on the day.

Ian

[seatime]

Hi uripper, I just had a look at the seabreeze website for the first time, love the graph format.
Just a question though? where exactly are they describing in their 7 day wind and wave forecast? They say it is for BRISBANE though they don't give current observations or live updates for BRISBANE only BRIS AIRPORT and the other stations maintained by bom.
I'm wondering if their forecast is for Brisbane City and not necessarily Moreton Bay and offshore waters of Cape Moreton.
I notice their 4 day forecast MSL prognostic charts are straight off bom also. I think the bom forecasts are accurate the majority of the time and it's baffling how the individual forecasts can differ at times. regards

[Phoenix]

Anyone notice how often "Our Brisbane" changes their weather forecasts. On some days it's around 4 times. That doesn't bode well for their confidence in themselves, let alone anything else.

[uripper]

... seabreeze website ... Just a question though? where exactly are they describing in their 7 day wind and wave forecast? They say it is for BRISBANE though they don't give current observations or live updates for BRISBANE only BRIS AIRPORT and the other stations maintained by bom.
I'm wondering if their forecast is for Brisbane City and not necessarily Moreton Bay and offshore waters of Cape Moreton.

gelsec - good questions / observations - dont know - suggest send Seabreeze an email via their feedback form & post their reply on this thread - like to know myself - good luck - MalM

[snappa]

hi mal

i got your email and will respond shorty

i will phone ya...


snappa

[Seahorse]

these weather reports really suck. will prob listen to nugget in the morning. at least get some sence there. or do what the weather bureau should do, stick their head out their window and get it out their ar.,;.

[2DKnBJ]

At this time of the year with the cyclones hanging around it would be hard for anyone to predict the weather.As in the last week with the cyclone that formed off T'Ville then headed east and then turning south through New Caledonia.Even though this system is a long way from our coast it is still a major factor in our weather.Don't go on what they say for a particular day...Keep an eye on what has been going on over the last week and make your own decisions on this.
I normally go with seabreaze but don't discount what the others have to say.
Cheers Dazza

[uripper]

The general forecasts for SEQ /Brisbane open waters for tomorrow morning Sat 03 Feb as at 10am Fri 02 Feb (today) were:
seabreeze.com.au
wind 8 / 15 knots seas 1.5-1.8m (interpreted from graphs)
buoyweather.com
wind 8 / 12 knots seas 5-8ft
bom.gov.au
20/25 knots, seas 2.2 metres north of Cape Moreton, E/SE 15/20 knots with seas 1.7 metres to the south
Wonder which one(s) will be most accurate??????
Lets see what the Bom readings will be at 10am Sat 03 Feb -
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ65117.html

ACTUAL BOM wind speed & gust recordings (knots) Sat 04 Feb 2006
0600hrs 1000hrs
Maroochydore 5 – 5 12 - 16
Cape Moreton 5 – 5 12 - 13
GC Seaway 4 – 5 9 - 10

So ... Seabreeze & Bouyweather got it right & BOM got it absolutely WRONG (again).
Realise that forecasting is difficult but this seems to be a recurring pattern.
BOM forecasts get radio, TV & paper coverage.
Anyone relying solely on BOM yesterday have missed out on near perfect conditions this morning.
We need reliable forecasting at 24hrs or even 12hrs - not 6hrs.

This was BOMS amended forecast at 0436 this morning - bit different ey?
SE winds 10/15 knots north of Cape Moreton and variable winds 5/10 knots to the south at first. Winds shifting SE and freshening to 15/20 knots during the afternoon.

Anyway, the window was there this morning, so hope you got some of it - I'm doing the Dads sports taxi thing (in between gigs at the moment).

Mal M.

[Cheech]

What Jeremy said.

I did an overnighter at Mud Island last night, and the wind did exactly what Seabreeze said it would. It dropped out when they said, and kicked in again this morning like they said.

Occasionally they do get it wrong, but it is very rare.

I do not know where the 7 day is measured from, but it seems to match the bay where I go (usually around Mud).

Cheech

[Nugget]

Today – Sat Feb 4 – the predicted forecast by the BOM did not eventuate.
At 4.20am they were predicting 20kts SE, at 5.05 when I spoke to them the forecast had changed… fallen into line with other prediction services that were expecting 5 – 10kts.
I am not criticising the BOM – I understand that weather predicting is a complex and complicated task. However any thinking person would have to ask themselves if the BOM’s success rate is comparable with other weather prediction services, comparable to world standards.

It is my understanding that the BOM is a Government department that cost the Australian tax payers millions.
By the nature of the service they provide, they are not accountable for their work’s accuracy.
It would seem reasonable that there be some form of cross checking or level of comparing their success to world standards so we the end user can have confidence our service is on par with the rest of the world.
For all we know the Australian standard could be at the level of Patel’s medical skills.
Then again, it could also be that we have one of the best services on earth – it would be comforting to know where we are on the scale.

I have noticed, (particularly since the Sydney to Hobart yacht disaster) that they air on the side of caution more so than some of the international and Australian independent prediction services. It may be that this is the reason for the differences in forecasts.

As of next weekend on 4BC I will not be relying on the BOM as the sole source of weather predictions. I’ll be giving a summary from a variety of forecasts from several different weather services so boaties can make up their own mind.
I will also be including surf reports (at the request of beach fishos, families heading to the beach and surfers) as well as water clarity for both anglers and divers.

Dave ><>

[chanquetas]

I am Master of an oil rig supply vessel in the NW Shelf. We get detailed weather predictions for the area of operation sent to us from the BOM. These come every 6 hours, or every 3 hrs during cyclones. I have just been through Cyclones Clare and Daryl.
The accuracy of these reports is uncanny. What they say will happen, happens. Occassionaly there may be a slight deviation, or a squall, but you cannot account for everything.

I would say the problem with the BOM predictions that are referred to here, for Brisbane/Moreton Bay, are for a large area, as Ian (finding_time) has stated. And to predict for such a large area there is always going to be an element of ambiguity.

You can also blame the wankers in their billion dollar yachts that take off on boxing day from Sydney and head south through one of the most treacherous waterways in the Shouthern Hemisphere in the worst time of the year to be there.

Ever since the death of those guys a few years back, and I grieve for their families, the weather reports have disclaimers and an at-times seemingly huge arse-covering factor built in.

Personally I reckon the BOM do a brilliant job.
I have also been caught out by Seabreeze, relying on that when it said it would be only 10 knots, and I went out in the bay in my kayak into 25 to 30 knot winds. Who was right that day? BOM! I looked at their report and chose to ignore it as it didnt sound as favourable as Seabreeze.

Caveat emptor...

[Nugget]

Personally I reckon the BOM do a brilliant job.
Caveat emptor...

Thanks Chanquetas - that's comforting knowledge from someone with your experience.
I have noticed that conditions away from land are a lot more predictable.
Maybe it is a combination of the area of coverage and the unpredictability of what will happen on the coastline.

Dave ><>