Im liking this argument guys.
Flick,
Basically without much more detailed stidies of larval ecology and fish movements/habitat utilization, we only have theories as to what the expected outcomes of closing areas to fishing are. MPAs do significantly increase biomass within them. My Orpheus Island trip was one of 6 studies conducted since 2000 of the exact same areas in the Palm Islands, using the same Underwater Visual Census techniques, and there have been consistently more and larger fish found in Green Zones including Plectrompomus sp. and Lutjanus sp. But I pose the question, what good is this to fisheries? Yes we are conserving the habitat for future study/ecosystem services/tourism, but of late there has been a push to quantify the monetary benefits of ecosystems, and there must be a direct linkage with adjacent areas so we can physically see the results.
To confuse matters more, not all seagrass beds, reefs, and mangrove forests created equal. Some are sources and some are sinks for recruits (larvae which will one day enter the adult population and subsequently be caught by rec fisherman). Rather than explain this, ill give you and example. Queensland Grouper larvae are extremely abundant in seagrass beds within estuaries adjacent to the reefs which they are found, but they are less abundant on subtidal rocky areas. This would lead you to presume the seagrass bed is "NURSERY HABITAT" and must be protected at all costs. Molecular studies revealed that almost no adult Grouper were from these larval populations, with most of the population were originated from those larvae found on rocky reefs. They got it wrong. Add to this variation in habitat quality between seagrass beds/rocky reefs and things become even more confusing(based on hydrodynamics, nutrient cycling etc).
Currently a very well respected academic at UQ is studying the effects of habitat mosaics on the nursery potential of these habitats. This unpublished research has so far discovered prawns prefer/survive/grow better in seagrass when it is adjacent to a healthy stand of mangroves without a large gap of open substrate to separate the two. This mosaic is also heavily reliant on the "quality" of these habitats, whether they are degraded of not, as a poor mangrove stand will support a poor prawn population on the seagrass.
These aspects are being considered when zoning areas of Moreton Bay, among others, to select the most valuable habitats to conserve.
I have deliberatley not mentioned anything about declining water quality, habitat degradation, threats of introduced species, impacts on macrofauna (turtles, dugongs) fire weed, CLIMATE CHANGE etc. We all know the story with these, and it will be interesting to see into the future as to how current management will deal with these pressing issues.
Thanks guys,
Mike