Just heard some dick on TV talking about King Tides and massive storm surge. Tides are in fact only medium size New Moon tides. We have tides 1/2 meter higher on normal tide ranges in January so a 1/2 meter storm surge will only be the same as a January high. Tide is at 10 this morning and will see how high it comes up. Storm surge usually travels in advance of the system itself. Landfall is being predicted for around high tide time Tuesday. Good solid rain at present but wind is no worse.
The 8am BOM advice, has, as expected, adjusted the landfall forecast about 50 ks South. Now expected 1/2 way between Ayr and Bowen. I think it has a bit more South in it yet and is "in the slot" for Airlie beach or just north around Monties. Moving slow, will take some time yet and who knows, it might U turn and bugger off =)
Interesting, but all the news feeds I've been watching this morning have made no mention of Home Hill. Ayr is being mentioned all the time, and the last time I looked at a map, Home Hill was just south on the other side of the river, but didn't seem important enough to get a mention.
Looks like all the TV channels' "personalities" have headed north for the big event too. Some of them might even be called "stars".
So stand by for an honest unbiased view from them all, each one trying to outdo the others.
TOL
Still about the same in Airlie. Bit of last minute prep going on around town. Power out at Jubilee pocket which I don't expect will come back on till after this passes Tuesday arvo. Hope they are all ready. Our catering kitchen is there but have fired up the genny and have enough fuel for 36 hours. Don't known when Airlie will lose power but it will probably be some time today given conditions. Had about 50 ml of rain in the last 4 hours and winds still SE at 70 to 80 k's.Northerly swell rolling in and high tide in a few minutes. Tide looks to be about 4meters off a predicted 3.75. Tomorrow will be more "interesting".
This is really the best guide at present. Live radar images http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR241.loop.shtml#skip
Worse place for cyclone news are the TV channels. Always worse case scenarios and usually out of date as most are pre recorded.
BOM is the best place.
Hope you get all your preps done early and stay safe.
Ayr is now "safe" the 11am track map has confirmed what the radar was clearly showing. This system has moved south by a significant margin and the latest track map has it landing right on Airlie. Still looks like it has further south to go yet and mackay should be getting ready. Now a cat 3 with a 4 by late tonight. 3 hourly Bom updates are not really up with the times when the radar can show real time movement of the system. Over the next few hours, if this continues to drift south we might end up dodging a bullet in Airlie and Bowen but someones going to cop it.
kc
Winds gust peaked at 111k's on Hamilton Island. =(
All the TV channels will be pissed off they are already too far North. Some even in Townsville. Head for Monties Reef Resort of Airlie Beach if you want a ring side seat boys and girls. Ayr/Home Hill are now relatively safe
I think my nephew still has his boat at Hamilton, but he may have it further south now.Originally Posted by kc
Poor old channel 9. They have a crew stationed in Townsville and just now they are trying to pump up the tyres of the cyclone "hitting" Townsville. All headed by the great climate change precursor of "could, may and might". Townsville pump up saying. "insert precursor" stronger winds than Yasi, more flooding, and the best one no power for 4 days. FMD. Townsville, your going to be OK snowflakes. Take that to the bank. Ayr, you are going to be damp and windswept but you will be OK too. Bowen, Monties and Airlie....hang on to your (coco) nuts. Best place for the bugger to go will be between Conway beach and Mackay....around the old laguna Quays and Midge point. Pity for them but not a lot of people living in that area and this is my best guess for where this is heading.
If he is on Hamo the boat will be safe in the marina and he will be safe in the yacht club bar. Be worse places to be stuck.
I think he is back here, had the boat at Cairns and was bringing it back, last report a couple of weeks ago was that the boat was at Hamilton!
All good. I hope for as long as I have internet I can keep posting "real" news, not the TV fake News which is so much a part of the modern media. I remember after Yasi some TV dick, standing at the damaged clump point jetty (MIssions beach) telling the world "and this is where tourist leave from to visit the Whitsunday Islands"...only a few weeks ago a courier mail story "killer dingos lost on Whitsunday Island"...Pelorious island as it turns out. 400 k's north near Hinchinbrook. Never let the truth get in the way of a good beat up....PLUS you can all say, you knew the cyclone was going to drift further south, because you saw it first on Ausfish =)
kc
If i keeps travelling south I'm guessing my Stanage Bay trip will be off the cards, was due to go next Friday but depending on how much rain they get will be whether or not i can actually get in.
560c Bar Crusher "Overtime"
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