weather forcast befuddlement

[seashawgal]

Have a week off & have been watching the wind forecast on seabreeze planning a couple of overnighters at Tangalooma wrecks in my 5.3m Whittley impala with a 90hpmerc 2 stroke. Confusion plus with 3 different sites including BOM giving quite different forecasts. Decided to cancel the trip last night with every wind possible forecast over a 3 day period. 15-20kn SE, 15-20kn NW, 5k N, 10kn E etc. Didn't want to be at the mercy of any strong northerly or NW whilst anchored at the wrecks. Let alone crossing the bay in any 20 K winds. The forecast this morning different again but have already decided to go up the Noosa river system instead. I have 2 weeks off again in Dec so will try again to plan a Moreton trip.
It used to be fairly predictable in summer that it is calmer in the mornings & the wind gets up about 0930ish.
Does anyone have a favorite weather site that is somewhere close to the mark? I know weather can be unpredictable but a ATM the forecasts are weird with the winds changing dramatically in the one day.
Constructive comments welcome.

[airlock]

its been blowing its arse off up in noosa the past month, tried to head out into the bay last tuesday with the promise of 8kn from the east, after an hour it was 2 meter swells and 15+ from the north. i find willys wind the most reliable but tbh i think its just really unsettled at the moment.

[Sheik]

I sympathise with you seashaw. I have the same problems as I suppose most do. I have a little 5m glass as well, so forecasts are super important. Was thinking of heading offshore tomorrow etc but just too risky.
My best option is to go to this page on BOM http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
I may be telling you something that you already know so apologies iff that's the case, but I look at the forecast wind and then the chart. The chart for the next four days for example shows relatively few isobars running onto the coast of Qld. The wind will then depend on how hot it gets. If it's hot, the air over the land warms up over the day and rises from about midday. The air over the sea rushes in to fill the void, forming the seabreeze. If it's really hot the air over the land will rise quickly and the seabreeze will be strong etc.
My guess is that winds will be low in the early mornings and rising to 15s during the late morning and through the afternoon.
As mentioned, I'm sorry if this is all obvious but it's just how I get a little more info from the charts.
regards jim

[bowds13]

Iv checked the weather evey day this week hoping for a trip to the beacons tomorrow morning but the forecast has changed each time. Was looking at a run across in the morning and home by lunch time which sea breeze says yes below 10knt from 4am to 5pm but BOM says 10-15knt increasing to 20knt early morning. My 4.5 polycraft can handle some shitty water but I'd much prefer to not be caught out to begin with. I might have to play it say and settle for a fish around Scarborough. The possible storm activity is all the appealing either

[blairv70]

Hmm I am hoping the wind change n the morning brings a few hours of calm as I am heading off the Goldcoast. Fingers Crossed

[airlock]

tomorrow looks good for noosa if you can get out there

[Lucky 1]

I check 3-4 weather sources i.e. bom, seabreaze, willy, buoy weather when planning an overnighter out to exposed waters. The more consistent they are amongst each other, the more confidence I have in the forecast.

[seashawgal]

went to Noosa River didn't matter how windy it was there were calm spots everywhere. Spent the first night in Woods bay, just lovely lying back with the moon & the stars with classical music on the radio. Then next night near the tewantin ferry on a quiet beach. Took a ride up to lake Cootharaba. Caught some mud crabs at my favorite spot outside the restaurants at Tewantin warf. Still plenty of yabbies on those banks near the mouth of the river. Thanks for all ya lovely comments.

[bondy99]

@ seashawgal,

G'day, good to see you out and about.

How did you go with the muddies? Was there were any garfish around?

Bondy

[Feral]

Its all about the speed the fronts come through at, this time of year always seems to be hard for them to get right. Different forecasts on different sites just means they are predicting the changes to come through at different rates.

Other times of the year they are getting super reliable, getting the changes correct to within less than an hour easily.

[seashawgal]

Hi Bondy
Yep got some muddies, 2 keepers, threw a few females back and a huge bream in one pot as well. I cooked that up for my doggy who came on the trip with us. Unfortunately 4 pots got stolen overnight in a favourite little creek of mine in Tewantin. Couldn't believe it doesn't normally happen to me. Anyway they were old small pots so it's not that big of a deal. I didn't see garfish but I saw prawns at night. Also heaps of yabbies on the banks near the mouth of the Noosa river. Lots of mullet jumping at night around the boat. I was very slack with the fishing didn't do much, just relaxed and sight seeing on the river.
I'm hoping weather permitting to go to Tangalooma in Dec for a few days in the boat.
Kind regards
Ros

[Dignity]

Ros, glad you had an enjoyable time, I just spent a couple of days up that way myself chasing whiting and it was lovely to try somewhere away from home.

If planning long term I use something like http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.sh...d-bris&tz=ACDT where you can look at the forecasts for winds over a period of time, usually if the forecasts on this site don't change much then you can almost be sure the forecast for the day you want will be OK but if each day you look at it and the forecast several days out keep changing then for us it is usually a "no go". the site takes a little to get used to and navigate around but it is worthwhile.

How did you go chasing Bream and Whiting in the passage recently.

sam

[Sheik]

Hey Ros
One thing I've noticed is that in years like this one the BOM are often very wide of the mark. It's like there's a filter factor on the weather that they don't know about. For example, they call rain for more often in years like this than it actually appears. About five days ago BOM was predicting storms for this afternoon (saturday) in Brisbane but that's slid by, as it has for the past few months numerous times. I think this is why farmers get so cranky. When they really need the rain, and BOM are incorrectly predicting it, it's very disappointing for farmers. FOr the past five or so years here in SEQ, every front that came through brought rain with it, but that has finished now, and we're in a pattern whereby it has to be a major event to bring rain.
This was the sort of weather that hit with the Gap storm in 08. BOM hopefully will learn that they should have a negative filter on every rain prediction they're doing, and that this will impact on wind speeds etc.
But I am not too critical of BOM, they do a fantastic job i think.

[seashawgal]

I recall in the old days we used to get a lot of SE changes after a storm, quite different now.