Gday Fellas
Taking 4 weeks holiday, next weeks report aint lookin too bad from tuesday morning, question is can we trust the weather reports that have been forecast. Be runnin just out the front of moreton chassin a few snaps and wat not. Been using the regular sites for weather and had a look at bouy weather, but is their one standout weather site for offshore that you lot have used that you would trust your life with.
Cheers Clint..
None, mate. Even the day before, it's still possible that you'll get up and find that she's 20kt instead of the 5-10 forecast. If I do look at one, it's BOM. I reckon anywhere beyond a three day forecast is simply pure guess work.
Cuzza
One of the only jobs in the world where you can be wrong practically every day of your life and still not get fired ;-)
Good luck hopefully it stays nice for you
I trust the reports, not the forecasts
The weather forecasts are too accurate for us to ignor them, and too inaccurate for us to rely on.
In all seriousness though I think the level of accuracy in medium range computer modelling such as that produced by ECMWF & BOM's ACCESS-R is just remarkable. ECMWF picked up Cyclone Yasi 16 days before she formed and from day dot had it under a westerly steering influence crossing the nth Qld coast.
I just look at the forecasts as a possibility or indication so no I don't put a lot of faith in forecasts, but usually look at both Seabreeze and BOM watching it and any reports right up until I head out. Also look at forecasts and weather patterns for days either side of planned day/days out. I consider the forcasts as only generalised too and expect my chosen location may be a bit better or worse, so a 5 - 10 kt variation on top of or below what is forecast.
The main thing is to have a good look around on the day, I mean look at the sky/clouds, horizon, clarity, all good indicators of what is happening out to sea. Bit harder to tell if heading out in the dark though and a bit more of a leap of faith.
What it all amounts to is they are weather "predictions" to put it simply, best guess from data available, kind of like guessing winning horses from the form guide (if you get what I mean) far better to start taking note of weather patterns in your area and note what happens during certain patterns, things like Cyclones and so on are pretty simple to "see", but which direction the will travel is once again a "best guess" take the predictions as a guide, no use going out and posting the enxt day about how "they" got it wrong, there is simply too many variables to ever say with 100% certainty what is going to happen in a day or two, let alone, next week.
The forecasts are no longer what they used to be not even the current reports, in the past lighthouse keepers would report acrual conditions as they could visually see what was happeneing but as it is an extinct breed reports rely on machines. I used to be able to do a free call to BOM and get weather reports from Double Island point to Point Danger with a report for each area (that is it was broken up into about 10 different segments) with wind swell , sea heights and direction of swell and distance apart . Now, you get one generic report for the entire area and the call is a timed cost call wt?. I believe that by law they do need to provide a free call service and I used to have that number but have lost it (similarily there is one for finding phone numbers but once again lost with the mobile phone that had these stored) but these numbers are not advertised anywhere.
In short, I take a quick drive to the nearest headland and have a good look for myself and having the most recent isobar chart available and what I can see for myself makes me decide whether to go out or not.
Thanks fellas and lady, I like me 2day trips offshore sleepin out the back of moreton overnight. I been caught out so many times with false reports waking up the next morning to a 30+knot NE and huge swells and being in a 4.9mtr side console aint to much fun punchin back to bribie in shite weather. Most of the sites that have been spoken of i use and get a rough idea of wats happening. I usually take the worst report given and keep that in mind for the run home just incase it becomes the actual weather. Fingers crossed I can slap a report in the offshore section next week.
Hi
I remember years back when Wilkie did the weather and the forecast was for light winds around 5-10 and the outlook was for a fairly fine week. We set off to Barwon banks and it blew a gale. 2-3 metre seas and couldn't even go to bed as we would of been thrown out of our bunks.
I check the BOM and forecast wind, if Unsure just don't go.
Mrs H
The difference between a " report " and a " forecast ".
Report is on what has already happened. ( past tense )
Forecast is what will happen.
For further reading, google up "weather forecasting " and the like.
There will be good info on there on how to read charts ( forecast charts ) with synoptic outlooks.
It's always good to get as much info as possible in particular if, as you do , head out over-night.
The Summer months offer more uncertain 48 hr weather isses, but it certainly is more stable over the winter months ( IMO... Late April - October )
There are many weather sites to visit and make a decision from.
Buoyweather
Sea Breeze
Willy Weather
Wind Finder
BoM.... Marine section
Underground Weather
just to name a few. You can do an " advanced " search here on Ausfish and find the many threads dealing with this subject.
cheers
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If you want to learn more about reading charts, finding the very best free charts and interpreting the various models and understanding how weather works, there is a cool site, just like this that is full of weather gurus ready to lend a hand. Among the contributors are many current and retired Meteologists.
It also a dedicated Marine thread section where just these kind things are discussed.
Check it out here. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/
Last edited by aus2045; 11-04-2013 at 07:22 PM. Reason: Forgot to add a point
As mentioned above,
getting a copy of the latest synoptic chart and comparing that to the latest observations is the best way.
Metview done out of NZ is more accurate than BOM.
(have an uncle that does a lot of round the world cruising, and he put me on to this site as being "one of the best")
http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/
Still has the standard disclaimer though
G
S***fish & chippy
Metvuw.com is still derived from the various global models, namely deterministic and ensemble runs from ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, CMC and UK-Met.Originally Posted by fish'n'chippy
All these can be found here, . http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...ZOOM=0&PERIOD=
animated on just one site. A few years ago you had to go to several different sites to compare models. Just pic the model run. ECMWF is the best, GFS second. Hit loop for the animated graphic. Besides MSLP it also has upper charts, Vorticity, Low level convergence, sea winds, precip, etc.
Last edited by aus2045; 11-04-2013 at 07:44 PM. Reason: Missed a bit
1. Some of the comments highlight a total misunderstanding re the difference between a "forecast" and a "nowcast" and in most respects weather forecasts are definately more right than they are wrong and any forecast is simply that, a forecast, based on the best infomation available "at the time". The same identical infomation is available to everybody, it's just a matter as to how different people interpret the available data.
2. Today there is much more data and infomation available than the days when lighthouse keepers licked their fingers but in true Australian tradition bashing weather people has become a national pastime.
3. Nobody would ever trust a weather forecast with their life, rather a nonsensical comment.
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