Reply With QuoteI've been a knocker in the past.......but I'm starting to think these climate change people might be on to something.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/h...na-2010-12.pdf
Above is the downloadable PDF which is good reading.
Below a summary.
Record-breaking La Niña events
An analysis of the La Niña life cycle and the impacts and significance of
the 2010–11 and 2011–12 La Niña events in Australia
La Niña events greatly influence Australia’s climate.
The 2010–11 and 2011–12 La Niña events were two of the most significant in Australia’s recorded meteorological history.
The following pages explore the ‘story’ and ‘background’ of these La Niña events. The ‘story’ section follows the evolution of these extraordinary events and their widespread impacts on the weather of Australia during 2010 through 2012. The ‘background’ section gives an overview of the physical processes driving La Niña and El Niño events, and outlines the ways in which these events typically alter weather in Australia.At a glance: the impact of these La Niña events in Australia
Unless otherwise indicated, all temperature and rainfall anomalies (i.e. departures from average) in this publication are calculated with respect to the 1961–1990 average, as recommended by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization.
The successive La Niña events spanning 2010–12 were associated with record rainfall over much of Australia and some of the biggest floods in living memory. This followed years of severe drought in many parts of the country, and while it brought relief to many Australians, it also brought devastation to others.
Some facts about the 2010–11 and 2011–12 La Niña events
- The 2010–11 La Niña event was one of the strongest on record, comparable in strength with the La Niña events of 1917–18, 1955–56 and 1975–76.
- In October and December 2010, and February and March 2011, the Southern Oscillation Index values (a measure of a La Niña's strength) were the highest recorded for each month since records commenced in 1876.
2011 was Australia's coolest year in a decade (2001–2011).
2010 was Australia's third-wettest calendar year on record.
Ocean temperatures to the north of Australia were highest on record in 2010.
Widespread flooding occurred in many parts of Australia associated with the record rainfalls.
and:-
Comparison to past La Niña events
The 2010–11 La Niña was one of the strongest on record, comparable in strength to the events of 1917–18, 1955–56 and 1975–76. Widespread impacts were experienced across a large part of Australia, including record rainfall and severe flooding.
While the intensity of atmospheric indicators during the event was exceptional, tropical Pacific Ocean indicators did not reach record cool levels. This may have been partly due to the general warming trend in the Pacific Ocean, which has warmed around 0.5 °C since 1950.
The 2011–12 La Niña was a weaker event, but still of moderate strength by both atmospheric and oceanic measures. Despite flooding in a number of areas during summer, the impact of this second event upon Australia's climate was generally less significant than during the previous event.
The previous two La Niña episodes were also multi-year events, lasting from September 2007 to March 2009 and from May 1998 to March 2001, respectively.
The 2007–08 and 2008–09 La Niña events were weak to moderate, with relatively minor impacts across Australia. Although the 2007–08 event brought the typical heavy rainfall to most of northern Australia and the eastern tropics, the southern half of the Murray–Darling Basin did not receive the above-average rainfall and cool temperatures typical of past La Niña events. The 2008–09 La Niña was a short event, bringing significantly above-average rainfall across the north of Australia, although most parts of southeastern Australia received below-average rainfall, consistent with persistent drought conditions in place for the region since at least 2000.
The 1998–2001 La Niña persisted for three years with three distinct peaks over the summers of 1998–99, 1999–2000, and 2000–01. The event was generally moderate in strength, with widespread above-average rainfall and flooding, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland. While much of the north received record high falls, parts of the southeast and Tasmania missed out on the heavy rainfall, and hence did not get the relief from the dry conditions that had started around late 1996.
Cheers LP
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I've been a knocker in the past.......but I'm starting to think these climate change people might be on to something.
Yes it's called the Gravy Train.I've been a knocker in the past.......but I'm starting to think these climate change people might be on to something.
banshee,
thing is Climate does Change and has been changing for millions of years before " Recorded " times.
The recordings are our best data to predict the weather patterns / rain / flooding and all this in turn leads us to predict the outcomes for the fishery.
Bill Swynok has a great DVD presentation of the effects and flow on effects of " climate changes " over the last few years, but I should be more specific and say the " flood and drought effects ". It is mind-blowing how the La Nina.... El Nino effects our saltwater and freshwater fishery. Direct and quantifiable data and results.
LP
Kingfisher Painting Solutions:- Domestic and Commercial.
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Not talking about global warming,talking about climate change,though the two may be related.....I don't know.The extremes we've experienced over the last three years in this area is something that has not occured before.No offence to anyone who lives in a town/city but unless your on the land it's very hard to comprehend the extremes that have occured in the past few years.Originally Posted by Fafnir
I recently purchased the commercial catch data for Cooloola and Fraser Island from FQ and have been constructing graphs of the catch trends and CPUE, as well as the influence of rainfall on annual yield per species. From 1988 to 2011 for Cooloola/Fraser species and 1945 to 2011 for tailor and mullet in Qld and NSW, each species' annual yield, mirrors in a remarkable fashion the annual rainfall and is astoundingly apparent on the graphs for each species.
Very concerning is that the annual yield of key species in Cooloola/Fraser have declined substantially in 2010/2011 when rainfall has been high, which contrasts significantly with catch trends and rainfall to that point. This year has been stated by the commercial guys in Cooloola as being the worst on record, but the catch data is as yet unavailable. The catch data and rainfall correlation indicates strongly, that if El Nino and lower annual rainfall were to return, then commercial catches for Cooloola/Fraser (and I suspect state wide) will fall through the floor. Same for recreational catches.
The problem with climate changes is we, as humans, prioritise weather as we knew it as younger people and maybe the last 60 years of average data as being the "norm" and we then calculate how our current weather has moved from that point. It always changes, regardless of man's efforts to change air quality. We just want it to be stable and do not like it when things go away from that.
It is high time that mankind accepted climate change and appreciated any changes it may bring and not try to keep old practices that suited different weather. Why do you think our crops are different from 60 years ago? they were modified to suit a specific climate period, a specific pest threat and a specific type of soil that was around when they flourished. All of those criteria change over time.
Personally I prefer the drought from a fishing perspective, it was almost unreal the sizes and locations of some things caught in the last drought.
Jack.
El Nino?
Maybe not.
"
Forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center say a wavering El Niño, expected to have developed by now, makes this year’s winter outlook less certain than previous years.
“This is one of the most challenging outlooks we’ve produced in recent years because El Niño decided not to show up as expected,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “In fact, it stalled out last month, leaving neutral conditions in place in the tropical Pacific.”
When El Niño is present, warmer ocean water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall that in turn influence the strength and position of the jetstream and storms over the Pacific Ocean and United States. This climate pattern gives seasonal forecasters confidence in how the U.S. winter will unfold. An El Niño watch remains in effect because there’s still a window for it to emerge."
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/10/1...st/#more-72592
Rod
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My dictionary defines green as ‘unripe, immature, undeveloped'. Perfect description.
Most political parties are seen as interested in what the voters think, the Greens are seen as thinking the community should be interested in what they think.
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