Who got caught by wrong weather forecast?

[Jarrah Jack]

This is the first good stoosh I've read under the new system with no thanks button as such but a chance to hit the likes/ dislikes and some sort of thanks there as well. I notice that no one has given Finga a like or a dislike for which he may be justifiably upset as he is trying pretty hard.

Come back to the shed and I'll give you a few dislikes Finga but I can't here as you're making too much sense..........I think.

I always look at all the local weather stations and see what the wind is then check the surf pics for the swell..After that I ask the dog if she wants to go fishing and its always yes..

[Flex]

All in all thanks to everyone on their prespective on weather prediction.

Now Im sure I'm in a situation similar to others, I live 300km away from water. So when I go fishing all I have is weather and sea temp charts to go by.

Have a look at Sunday's weather for Offshore water's for Barrier reef. Its got 10-15 knots. then coastal waters has 5-10?? in a NE easterly? Do you think the 10-15 is a bit cautious for offshore weather?

Looking at the map there is zero Isobars across the most of the state, Im not sure what that trough will do to the wind?Generally a trough is a prelude to cold front, which can mean nasty winds. I can see alot of cold air flowing up from the coastal low and high over middle of Aus.

thoughts?..

[Scalem]

Forecast Overview
The source of the ESE swell is a complex low pressure trough extending east to west across the northern Tasman and an embedded low lying just off the North Coast, close to Coffs Harbour. The trough and low sustain a strong ESE fetch across the central Tasman Sea in conjunction with a high pressure system over the southern Tasman supporting the ridge across its northern flank;

Read more: http://www.coastalwatch.com/swell/fo...#ixzz1O9XtBVBv

[finga]

I DID read one of your links Finga, and I will just say this. There is a lot of sense in going to websites to try make the best of a planned day out on the water. I will quote from the last link you gave from Australian Geographic who put this in perfect perspective for me, maybe you should consider that a majority of people looking at websites do not have a horse, problems with ants, I don't have a dog or frogs in the yard. But the article does point out that some animal behaviour can be helpful - granted.
"To get an idea of what kind of weather to expect all we need to do is browse the web, listen to a news bulletin or pick up a copy of the daily paper. However, if you do find yourself outdoors and out of touch with technology, there are signs that you can look out for to help avoid being stuck in a downpour with your tent fly furiously flapping in the wind."

This article infers if you don't have technology at your fingertips, then look at nature for clues. Fine!! Acknowledged!! Happy?

Scalem

I didn't know there was internet connections out wide. Is there??
So what signs do you look for that would indicate an impending change in weather conditions during a day of fishing??
Or is there an internet connection and you take the lap-top and surf the net so you can be told what's happening??
Or do you just get caught out and have a whine about the method of prediction you have chosen??

[Scalem]

You are on a different Tangent now Finga, it's your determination that is clouding your view. We were talking about making predictions before we make to decision to go, and listening to frogs and watching what the pooch does might work for you, doesn't for me. Now you are talking about once we are out there. Yes, I look at the clouds, listen to VMR weather forecasting and go home if weather changes. Can't take a horse, cat and don't have a dog. No ants in the Yalta either!! Now before you think I am going to keep going in a longsuffering spar with you on AF like on previous occasions you are wrong, you have the time, I do not, gotta go to work! I think you have made your point, achnolwledged as I said before, thanks for your views! Over and out!

Scalem

[Deanom]

Guys,
We also got caught out by the wrong wind forecast, but had fun at the 50's of Goldy.
One thing I note on this thread is that some people misunderstand the concept of the 40% gust speed.
The wind speeds that are forecast and recorded are averaged over a period (dont exactly know the period but suspect it is about 10min). The 40% higher reference to wind speed is for gusts which are normally averaged over about 3 seconds (or there abouts).
40% appears to be a statistical weighting factor to multiply the mean speed to get the shorter period gust speed.
If the forecast was for 10-15 knots and the recorded windspeed is 20-25knots, then the forecast is certainly out. Gust speeds for a recored 20 knot wind would be about 28knots and for a 25knot wind a gust speed would be about 35knots if the weighting factor is to be relied apon.
I believe a similar thing applies to the max wave height although I think it is normally doubled from the average because two waves may superimpose on each other if direction shifts.
Could be wrong here and dont have time for a comprehensive google search, but my 2cents anyway.
Dean

[Defore]

Can anyone tell me the forecast for tomorrow going by my cats behaviour today


Sorry i couldnt resist


cheers tim

That is easy, the cat is saying "F**ked if I know"

Tim you really need to have a bucket of water on standby for those cats

Ian

[timddo]

I gotta agree with Finga..
If the ants are coming into the house, it means rain is comming (With rain comes storms and winds.) Or your a dirty Bast...d

On another scenario
IF the dogs and cats are running away, the end of the world is coming to a near. So going fishing or not makes no difference.