Who got caught by wrong weather forecast?

[marto78]

I must admit that I got caught out yesterday as well.

The BOM site predicted 10-15kts SW in the morning and swinging around to a NE in the arvo, but it barely got above a 5kt southerly all day.

I hate it when they get it wrong

[turkeyslapper]

Mate, you should of checked Seabreeze.

[finga]

What are you smoking finga, it must be good gear


I can tell you now, when i turn up at someones house at 3 or 4 in the morning there are no magpie's or ants to look at, you can look up to the sky but i doubt youll see anything but stars unless its cloudy.


cheers tim

Haven't you fella's ever heard of looking at nature to tell what the weather is going to do.
Have a look during the week. If the ants are coming inside then there's rain going to happen. Have a look at moths at night.
A lot of cloud formations are visible at night unless it's either a moonless night or it's clouded over.
If you look upo and get water in your eyes it's a good chance it's raining.
Look at the stars. What can you see??
Look at the moon. Has it got some rings around it or is it clear?
Look at the barometer over the previous week and learn what it means when the barometer drops suddenly or slowly over 4 days or jumps up in pressure in an hour.
Take note and learn from nature. How do you reckon the long range weather forecasters work?

If it was 1 ft and onshore you would hear the surf but you roll over and go to sleep! But it could be 6 ft and blowing offshore you probably would not hear it but it would be a bugger to get across Evans Bar with.

How do you know where my bed is?
That little example of knowing what is happening where you are is a good example of local knowledge. It would not work over South Evans and definitely will not work out the back heading towards the iron gates.
It works for where my bed is. My grandfather taught us that when I was about 6 years of age in the spot where their house is. That was more then a couple of years ago.

I wonder how marineers and travellers got on before seabreeze??
I wonder how farmers know when to spray or organise harvestors, helicopters, plantings or many other duties they have to know, and predict, the weather for??

I wonder how many looked at the weather map and radars and infrared maps to see what was happening just because of the lack of accuracy of seabreeze and the like which everyone knows about and whinges about when they're wrong.
By what I read here seabreeze is about as accurate as ...well pulling a forcast out of a hat and it's not me complaining about getting caught out because of an inaccurate forcast.

[marto78]

Mate, you should of checked Seabreeze.

Don't you know that Seabreeze is never right.

[Flex]

Haven't you fella's ever heard of looking at nature to tell what the weather is going to do.
Have a look during the week. If the ants are coming inside then there's rain going to happen. Have a look at moths at night.
A lot of cloud formations are visible at night unless it's either a moonless night or it's clouded over.
If you look upo and get water in your eyes it's a good chance it's raining.
Look at the stars. What can you see??
Look at the moon. Has it got some rings around it or is it clear?
Look at the barometer over the previous week and learn what it means when the barometer drops suddenly or slowly over 4 days or jumps up in pressure in an hour.
Take note and learn from nature. How do you reckon the long range weather forecasters work?

Care to eloborate on the above comments Finga? and what they mean in terms of weather and what to expect from your experience?

[Scalem]

Well..... I changed my mind, I was going to say something but I'll just watch what develops in this thread and see what new found techniques I can observe that will give me reason to stay in bed at 3.00am in the morning instead of getting out to make a weather forcast, despite all the websites I visited the night before. For those that are interested these are :
http://www.coastalwatch.com/swell/fo...ts&location=10
http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml
http://www.seabreeze.com.au/graphs/qld.asp
http://magicseaweed.com/Queensland-MSW-Surf-Charts/48/

Scalem

[finga]

Care to eloborate on the above comments Finga? and what they mean in terms of weather and what to expect from your experience?

Well the most basic is red in the morning shepherd's warning, red in the evening shepherd's are dreaming. pretty self explanatory.
If the breeze is blowing from the west at dawn then there's a good chance it's only going to get worse....and cold
For us if the dog goes into hiding in the morning then a storm in the arvo
Ants inside the house is an indicator of good rains in about 3 days
If we have a fog or frost in the morning then it's going to be a cracker of a day.
Currawong song in the afternoon indicates a cracker of a day the next day.
The sounds of the frogs usually indicate rain coming soon
Rings around the moon can mean a frost is coming or really cold weather (up here)
Cloud formations in the previous couple of days and especially on the day is a good to to watch. Here are some explanations to what they mean http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Form...Mean&id=366194

The best way is to take note of the little things like where the horse is standing or where the cat is outside and take note of what happens.

[Scalem]

Interesting..... Not having as go here Finga, but I'll run a checklist...
Well the most basic is red in the morning shepherd's warning, red in the evening shepherd's are dreaming. pretty self explanatory.
If the breeze is blowing from the west at dawn then there's a good chance it's only going to get worse....and cold. Don't care if its cold and westerly winds to me usually means flat bars and flat seas in close
For us if the dog goes into hiding in the morning then a storm in the arvo I don't have a dog
Ants inside the house is an indicator of good rains in about 3 days Ants in the house usually means they have found something to eat, usually the cat food, but otherwise mr Hitman sprays pymethrin dust in all the right places, we are a regular Hitman customer.
If we have a fog or frost in the morning then it's going to be a cracker of a day. Not always true
Currawong song in the afternoon indicates a cracker of a day the next day. Dont get Currowongs here
The sounds of the frogs usually indicate rain coming soon Don't have frogs here either
Rings around the moon can mean a frost is coming or really cold weather (up here) Don't care about the cold
Cloud formations in the previous couple of days and especially on the day is a good to to watch. Here are some explanations to what they mean http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Form...Mean&id=366194 This will be useful, but I looked, there are many different types, all very hard to see at 3 in the morning, the best I can do is look the previous day if I can remember during work, I usually don't get home till 6 when its dark again.

I don't have a horse either and the cats are indoor cats, so where they sit is largely irrelevant I would think.

Scalem

[Flex]

Lol Horses and cats? are you taking the piss Finga? ...

My cat forgets where his ass is cause he's always licking it to check it's there, let alone forecast weather.

[turkeyslapper]

Don't you know that Seabreeze is never right.

Just a little sarcasm on my behalf.

[finga]

For those who doubt nature can predict the weather then build a weather rock. They never fail.
Here's the instructions on how to build one and how to use one.
http://www.howtodothings.com/hobbies...a-weather-rock
(that one is taking the p!ss)

Also a question for those who don't believe. How do you think people knew what the weather was going to do before the days of the idiot net??
Did they just take pot luck or what?

Another couple of questions if I may. What effect does a falling barometer have on fishing? What are the pictures on a barometer around the side of falling pressure? Could there possibly be a correlation there somehow?
There are correlations between animals and nature and weather patterns. If you learn them and take note they may be benificial to you especially the new, modern idiot net version of weather prediction is so unreliable.

[ozscott]

I wish you doubters would just go buy a bloody horse...I find older greys who are called Ted are the best at weather prediction.

Seriously though I know what Finga is saying. While I would put the forecasters ability far, far above mine, I have a barometer (or 2), and several books on boating and general weather and have tried to educate myself a bit over the years and I think for me if the forecasters have said things will be sweet, and I think that too then all good. But if the weather has been mixed, the forecasters say all good and I think thinks dont look so rosey I stay home. I guess doing everything you can to add to the weather and whether (you go fishing or not) question helps.

Cheers

PS. When I was up in Port Douglas with the fam year before last in Jan we went up to Kuranda. It has been raining and there was a cyclone brewing well off the coast - the forecast then from memory was that it only had a small to medium chance of landfall. A fellow in a coffeeshop at Kuranda made me a good coffee and swore black and blue that the birds were all flying the wrong way for Kuranda at that time of year and the cyclone would come in and hit them...well of course several days later it nailed Port Douglas and surrounds including the Tablelands....now I know that cyclones touch down a fair bit up there, but it was interesting and there was something in it. I wonder what would happen if I tied a barometer to my Jack Russell...

Cheers

[thelump]

Well the most basic is red in the morning shepherd's warning, red in the evening shepherd's are dreaming. pretty self explanatory.
If the breeze is blowing from the west at dawn then there's a good chance it's only going to get worse....and cold
For us if the dog goes into hiding in the morning then a storm in the arvo
Ants inside the house is an indicator of good rains in about 3 days
If we have a fog or frost in the morning then it's going to be a cracker of a day.
Currawong song in the afternoon indicates a cracker of a day the next day.
The sounds of the frogs usually indicate rain coming soon
Rings around the moon can mean a frost is coming or really cold weather (up here)
Cloud formations in the previous couple of days and especially on the day is a good to to watch. Here are some explanations to what they mean http://ezinearticles.com/?Cloud-Form...Mean&id=366194

The best way is to take note of the little things like where the horse is standing or where the cat is outside and take note of what happens.

I'll give you that one Finga. The morning in question here( the one that caught everyone out) had a lovely bright red sky as we were heading out to sea. The surf noises I get from camping within 200m of the beach at Port Macquarie a lot. I have been laying in the tent thinking it must be pretty small out there today when I have checked it has been solid with quite a strong offshore wind on it. Just my observations mate.

[Defore]

I wonder what would happen if I tied a barometer to my Jack Russell...

Cheers

Every time he farted there would be a high pressure zone

Ian

[ozscott]

Yep - and he does a bit of that...I just wonder if it would send him crazier than he is already

Cheers