Who got caught by wrong weather forecast?

[Scalem]

My motto... better to find it rougher than expected and turn for home than to sit at home sulking when it turns out to be flat!

You pretty much summed it up no chicken tonight!

Watching the replies, we have members here with lots of experience who study weather maps, various websites and like myself, pay good money to be trained crossing bars and consult with VMR staff in the attempt to reduce the risk factors associated with bad weather, should it happen despite best planning.

The 40% variance MM mentioned .... I may as well sell the boat and not even go out on days they predict up to 15 knots without bashing the boat, which is what it was on Saturday - HOWEVER, a SW wind and the effect it has on offshore waters is much less severe than a SE wind of the same wind strength. The Bureau didn't get that part right, which is really the worste part of it, then add your 40% to a SE and we have a problem Houston.

No beer on board my boat, but it's real hard to reach for Tims' delli chilli chips with one hand while driving the boat in sloppy conditions..... Had to vaccume the floor before the roaches had a meal overnight!

Thanks everyone for the replies.

Scalem

[Dignity]

Only managed 4 hours on the water sat afternoon, expecting 8 - 10 knots with maybe 15 knots as insurance but was surprised with the 20 + knots that was blowing, gave it away at 5pm and by the time got back to M'ba the damn wind dropped, go figure. Got a couple of nice snapper although I was really hoping to fish froom 7 - 9pm.

I guess Seabreeze and other sites go off the BOM forecasts officially. How is it with technology the same BOM forecast covers an area from Double Island Point to Point Danger whereas many years ago this area would have been broken up into 7 - 8 different forecasts.

[mitchdemeanor]

yep I got knocked around a fair bit too yesterday, was at mud too and as soon as I got over the shipping channel on the way back it went to sh*t.

Logged on with vmr sandgate when I left in the morning and the boys there were well on the ball all day. They had plenty on when I was about to head back in but still kept great radio communication. Great job!

[White Pointer]

same as last weekend as well, caught out both times, last weekend of m/bha, this weekend off Moreton

G'day,

That must be why. Backlash has been layed up for so long the Gods of weather decided to see if it or you could pass some test. Did you pass?

Regards,

White Pointer

[FISHAWN]

Did no body not notice the LOW on the synoptic charts which produced the big storm front sitting off the coast ?
Yes seabreeze forecast was good but you cannot take this as gospel.. A quick look at the horizon and charts confirmed that the weather would not be stable.

[Axl]

Yep add me to the list I had a shocker of a morning on Moreton Bay went out at midnight and it didnt seettle till about 08:30. However the boat got a run and I got some salt spray on me so all was good.

[finga]

Did no body not notice the LOW on the synoptic charts which produced the big storm front sitting off the coast ?
Yes seabreeze forecast was good but you cannot take this as gospel.. A quick look at the horizon and charts confirmed that the weather would not be stable.

Yep, local knowledge (and even not so local) is a big advantage and we seem to be losing the ability to look out at the sky and say...Bugger, just look at those clouds. Good day for cleaning gear.
This inability to look out the window, so to speak, is also added to by the vast distance people can travel now to have a fish. This distance makes local knowledge a bit of a problem. ie at Evans if I can hear the surf from bed it's sleep in. If I can't hear the surf it's on.
Also people do not seem to be able to read a map with funny lines on them anymore.
This is probably because there's no need to. Seabreeze will do it for us.

Me. Well I hardly refer to those sites for forecasts. I take into account what's been happening, how those funny lines with the numbers are moving across this great continent and look at the magpies and ants and listen to the surf and refer to that feeling in the guts.
Talking to the VMR before launching or when I log on doesn't hurt either.

The clouds don't lie.....

[Flex]

Maybe we should turn this thread into an educational one?

Im sure there is a range of knowledge here in readng weather maps. Maybe if we pass on our knowledge collectively we can all become better at predicting the weather.

Here's what I look at.
Wind direction,
- Wind generally spins clockwise around a low and anti around a high's down here. From this you can predict prevailing wind direction
- Isobars, Obviously the closer together the stronger the wind, fairly obvious. But this becomes less obvious the further north you go in Australia but typically the map is easy to understand in this regard.
Cold fronts also tend to carry strong winds in their direction of travel, if you see a trough close to your location on a map generally your going to be in for strong winds, even if the isobars are far apart the winds wont be to far away.

If you see rainy clouds about or in the distance it generally indicates potentially unstable weather(i.e low pressure) and you may get a bit of wind. High pressure systems are vastly more stable and especially during winter we can somtimes get 3-4 days of 5-10knot winds in a row..

Thats just a start, One thing Im yet to fully understand is prevailing winter/summer typical weather patterns and what to look out for on a national scale that will indicate potential stong or light winds.

Also during winter you have to be careful of the early morning localised conditions, Often you can get a stiff westerly for a few hours until the land temp equalises to the sea temp, then by about 10-11am you get glassed out conditions and nice afternoons.

Anyone care to add? or discount what I have writted as I am no means and expert..
-

[Defore]

My motto... better to find it rougher than expected and turn for home than to sit at home sulking when it turns out to be flat!

We use to have a different motto when glider flying " It is better to be standing on the ground wishing you were flying than to be sitting in a glider flying wishing you were standing on the ground"

But I agree with you on boating as long as I am not too far off shore and the sea is not breaking over the top of the boat.
We got lucky on Saturday, went off shore and back before the winds picked up.

Ian

[Reefmaster]

Yep I got caught as well. I was 90km from the Widebay Bar on the shelf and at 6pm Sat night it starting blowing a good 20knots of Southerly but it also bucketed down rain the whole night. Longest night i have spent on the water I can tell you. Dropped out in the morning but got back up just before we headed home which made for a long trip back to the bar. Things you do for fish and thank christ we donged some good ones for our effrots.

Greg

[fishfeeder]

I think we need a post say Every Friday morning where people can get on and Discuss the weather for the coming weekend for different areas say Gold Coast, Moreton Bay/Offshore and Sunshine Coast. The post doesn't need to be there forever and just replaced each week with new posts.
I think it would help people read and understand the "Funny lines on a map" and how they effect the forcast for an area..
Sure I understand that in the end its up to the person to make his/her mind up if they are going to head out boating but I am sure it can only help others on this site be a bit safer on the water..

Cheers
Brett

[Greg P]

Fished Wide Cal on Sunday. Fans were on but it was still fishable with the chute. Worked hard for a bag of snaps/pearlies and some nice red throat. Ride home was lumpy but just set the Auto pilot and speed to 19 knots and cruised back to Bribie around 4pm.

If you are waiting for the perfect day to go out then you may never get there. Tough it out.

[Scalem]

So it looks like I have to A: Delete 3 websites from my favourites in my browser toolbar B: Look closer at isobars on the Beaurea website ( which is where I presumed the 3 websites gather their information from) and make my mind up after C: winding my car window down on the way to the boat ramp at 3am in the morning, stick my head out to see if I can spot any clouds on the horizon and decipher what type they are when its pitch black. Flex, I do however like the idea of learning more, good idea.

Scalem

[TimD]

Yep, local knowledge (and even not so local) is a big advantage and we seem to be losing the ability to look out at the sky and say...Bugger, just look at those clouds. Good day for cleaning gear.
This inability to look out the window, so to speak, is also added to by the vast distance people can travel now to have a fish. This distance makes local knowledge a bit of a problem. ie at Evans if I can hear the surf from bed it's sleep in. If I can't hear the surf it's on.
Also people do not seem to be able to read a map with funny lines on them anymore.
This is probably because there's no need to. Seabreeze will do it for us.

Me. Well I hardly refer to those sites for forecasts. I take into account what's been happening, how those funny lines with the numbers are moving across this great continent and look at the magpies and ants and listen to the surf and refer to that feeling in the guts.
Talking to the VMR before launching or when I log on doesn't hurt either.

The clouds don't lie.....

What are you smoking finga, it must be good gear


I can tell you now, when i turn up at someones house at 3 or 4 in the morning there are no magpie's or ants to look at, you can look up to the sky but i doubt youll see anything but stars unless its cloudy.


cheers tim

[thelump]

Yep, local knowledge (and even not so local) is a big advantage and we seem to be losing the ability to look out at the sky and say...Bugger, just look at those clouds. Good day for cleaning gear.
This inability to look out the window, so to speak, is also added to by the vast distance people can travel now to have a fish. This distance makes local knowledge a bit of a problem. ie at Evans if I can hear the surf from bed it's sleep in. If I can't hear the surf it's on.
Also people do not seem to be able to read a map with funny lines on them anymore.
This is probably because there's no need to. Seabreeze will do it for us.

Me. Well I hardly refer to those sites for forecasts. I take into account what's been happening, how those funny lines with the numbers are moving across this great continent and look at the magpies and ants and listen to the surf and refer to that feeling in the guts.
Talking to the VMR before launching or when I log on doesn't hurt either.

The clouds don't lie.....

If it was 1 ft and onshore you would hear the surf but you roll over and go to sleep! But it could be 6 ft and blowing offshore you probably would not hear it but it would be a bugger to get across Evans Bar with.