Tsunami Warning Sunday 0815

[tigermullet]

I cannot agree with Oldboot. Warnings are issued because of an occurrence or on a prediction of an event such as thunderstorms, severe weather etc.,

It is not the job of BOM to get into risk analysis. That's our job after being informed of the possibility or probability of an event occurring.

Taking into account the size of the earthquake, it's depth and distance from us I put the risk as very low. But it was just an educated guess based on facts as I think I understand them.

I could have been very wrong but, at least, was informed of the size of the earthquake; that a wave had been generated resulting in warnings and, therefore, the risk had to be given serious consideration.

I feel very comfortable with the warnings but would have been upset if news of the tsunami and the possibility of threat was suppressed.

[oldboot]

plain and simple this has been used as an excercise in social manipulation.

They have closed beaches all up and down the coast...........telling people that can not sit or walk on the beach forget swimming

on the basis of something that is forcast between 200mm and meter in New Zeland...... the disipation in the distance between here and there would be considerable.

Even when the reports of the "wave" being more like the 200mm ( up to 1.5 meters in places) in NZ, they continue to maintain closure of beaches and keep them closed more or less all day

I don't need to know a great deal I dont need to be an expert ........to spot something that is simply rediculous and unreasonable.

We hear on the news...the "emergency plan"... being " hailed as a great sucess"

this has nothing to do with forcasts bassed on a reasonable expectation.......expectations that if wrong are corrected several times a day on subsiquent forcasts.

just bassed on the published wave height map.....there could never have been a reasonable expectation of waves that could justify the closure of beaches.... but the beach closures proceed and continue all day.

It is very much the job of the BOM to be involved in risk assessment.....that is a large part of what they do.....bu the day, hour and minute they are required to assess the risks of and the possible effects of bad weather occurances.....ya just have to look at the way forcasts and warnings are worded.

And if it sin't their job... who's is it?

I hear on the news that " the tsunami warning has been cancled" yeh fine..... but if they were interested in keeping the public properly informed...they would have canceled it at 6, 7 or 8AM this morning when they knew full well how the whole thing was panning out... information from NZ would have been available by 7 AM at the latest.

No I recon I know what happened.....the federal government saw an oportunity the flex its muscles and test its emergency plan.....without consulting the public.... and without considering the cost.

think about how much money has been lost by seaside businesses the subject of cancelations or forced closures braught on by this foolishness...I guess the government is happy it was not a bright sunny day on the east coast.....or a great deal more people would be unhappy.

cheers

[Jabba_]

Oldboot, its not just about big tidal waves and surges, it's also about unstable currants and rips that put people in danger... Those conditions can cause otherwise stable sand banks to collapes

It's hard enough for the SLSA to guard our lives on the calmest off days, let along when strange and strong currants sweep hundreds off week swimmers off there feet....

Have you ever seen what happens when a sand bank collapses.. I have.. Very rarely does it happen, I have only seen it once, and somthing like a change off direction off currant or sudden increase off currant can cause it....

What happened when I witnessed that sand bank collapsed.. I was surfing out from it.. A whole lot off japs were swiming and standing on it.. Water was belly high, then they just dropped.. I saw it it all and paddled in to help along with a few other surfers, the SLSA were on to it quickly also.. We surfers turned into life bouy's with japs clinging onto our boards..... No one drowned.. It happend 20 years ago, I was 17 at the time.....

[tigermullet]

Oldboot, its not just about big tidal waves and surges, and also about unstable currants and rips that put people in danger... Those conditions can cause otherwise stable sand banks to collapes

It's hard enough for the SLSA to guard our lives on the calmest off days, let along when strange and strong currants sweep hundreds off week swimmers off there feet....

Have you ever seen what happens when a sand bank collapses.. I have.. Very rarely does it happen, I have only seen it once, and somthing like a change off direction off currant or sudden increase off currant can cause it....

What happened when I witnessed that sand bank collapsed.. I was surfing out from it.. A whole lot off japs were swiming and standing on it.. Water was belly high, then they just dropped.. I saw it it all and paddled in to help along with a few other surfers, the SLSA were on to it quickly also.. We surfers turned into life bouy's with japs clinging onto our boards..... No one drowned.. It happend 20 years ago, I was 17 at the time.....

Same thing (almost) happened to me at 18 years of age at Surfers Paradise but in 1961. Just my luck to stand up on the outer bank as it collapsed. Dozens were caught out. Being young and fit I managed to get myself out but had to crawl onto the shore - no breath left. At one stage I thought I was swimming up to the surface until my head hit the sand. It's not nice to surface just as another wave breaks over your head and you feel like you're in a washing machine.

Never came across a collapsing bank since but it does happen.

There weren't too many foreign tourists around in those days... but now?

It pays to be cautious - some of them are seriously short and could drown in a rain puddle.

[WalrusLike]

Ya cant be sure of their effect based on your intuition:

http://www.teachervision.fen.com/tsu.../31103.html#10 says:
"Small islands with steep slopes usually experience little runup – wave heights there are only slightly greater than on the open ocean. This is the reason that islands with steep-sided fringing or barrier reefs are only at moderate risk from tsunamis. However, this is not the case for islands such as the Hawaiian or the Marquesas. Both of these island chains do not have extensive barrier reefs and have broad bays exposed to the open ocean. "

Distance may not protect you:

http://www.teachervision.fen.com/tsu...e/31103.html#7 :

"Tsunami waves in the deep ocean can travel at high speeds for long periods of time for distances of thousands of kilometers and lose very little energy in the process. ...<snip>... In 1960, great tsunami waves generated in Chile reached Japan, more than 16,800 km away in less than 24 hours, killing hundreds of people."

Lets drop this.... sensible folk listen to warnings when given by credible sources, knowing full well that not all warnings will eventuate.

[FNQCairns]

I understand all this is a exotic experience and all but what is the difference between this warning and the near dozens of strong wind warnings we get issued, not gale force just a strong wind warning? sure in both there is latitude for anything to happen to anyone within the multitude of possibility/chaos of every possible persons options to harm themselves near the ocean or in the case of strong winds miles from shore as well.

I agree with oldboot, IMO NZ was the feeler gauge, after then there is no excuse for people to be frightened into leaving their caravan park, nor harassed on local beaches by "authorities" in this instance in the real time that they where....I saw this on the evening news, for what they are often worth.

I suspect also that if the in real time the accounts of the US and international measuring devices also had the scale pegged quite early on.

Hell i had it pegged after just few minutes on the net and that was just for interest all that was left to ascertain at that point was is just any one of the hundred thousand people watching would actually notice it when it did arrive, that was my big curiosity.

IMHO I do think a 1 to 20 terror rating system will work, this one could have been a 2 with the very outside possibility of a 4 at highest for raising the natural terror level of any in the populace who witness/experience this event

There is a serious lack of "grip" in society today.

cheers fnq

[oldboot]

regardless the public should have been better informed about the magnitude of the problem and the reasoning behind any " closures"

Video of people being chased off beaches with loud speakers and people saying "i'm getting out of here there is a tsunami comming" are far from helpfull.

If the government would have tried a little harder to inform people and update the situation thu out the day, I would be far less concerned about the beat up

All I have heard in the media has been worst case and sensationalism.......not a measured explanation of the situation as it stands, currently updated.....just like you would find with any other potentilay dangerous event.

information is useless unless it is current and accurate as it can be.

I'll crawl back under my rock now.

cheers

[Damned67]

I certainly felt more informed from this site and the associated links. I did make the choice not to go fishing today. Had I have had a bigger boat, I doubt that it would have stopped me. Fishing in the bay, I was unconcerned about the wave height. Instead, I thought that the supposedly drastic changes in tide/current might put the fish off, and quite simply, decided to sleep in.
I feel the BOM warnings etc were adequate and justified. The media sensationalism on the other hand.....

[tigermullet]

Unfortunately, that's what the media does!

I'll admit to feeling uncomfortable with the closing of beaches by SLSA or the SES - the risk needed to be assessed by each and every person not by a volunteer group putting themselves up as an 'authority' and ordering people about.

Issuing such orders is overstepping the mark. I hope they are not beginning to believe their own PR and pretending to be more than they actually are - a group of volunteers with no more specialist knowledge than the rest of the informed community in an event like this.

Warnings are one thing, acting like little Hitlers is another.

[sleepygreg]

"Issuing such orders is overstepping the mark. I hope they are not beginning to believe their own PR and pretending to be more than they actually are - a group of volunteers with no more specialist knowledge than the rest of the informed community in an event like this."

On behalf of the many volounteer organisations I find that statement extremely offensive. They may not have the specialist knowledge of the science relating to the event, the same as they arent weather forecasters, or stormchasers. They are, however, chartered to save our sorry arses/property when the manure does hit the turbines. I for one, dont blame them one bit for trying to minimize the potential for injury/death/property damage. As for the theory of it being just the governments way of testing the warning system....well....I dont have a problem with that either.....imagine how much life would NOT have been lost if we had a similar warning system in place for the black saturday fires.....I know its not the same scenario.....or is it??

Greg

[Mike Delisser]

plain and simple this has been used as an excercise in social manipulation.

By the governments and leaders of 53 Pacific nations including USA, Japan, China & Russia?????

[oldboot]

My opinions posted have absulutely nothing to do with how this situation has been handled anywhere else but here.

Hawai.. was forcast and recieved dangerous wave action, an emergency situation existed there... but not here.

cheers

[Jabba_]

My opinions posted have absulutely nothing to do with how this situation has been handled anywhere else but here.

Hawai.. was forcast and recieved dangerous wave action, an emergency situation existed there... but not here.

cheers

But sweet FA happened in Hawai also (A bit off tidal surge), and they evacuated the coastal impact zones..... So I guess they don't know what there doing either...

Just a big con job ay...

[Bill_Corten]

Had a great day doing coastal bar crossing tuition on South Passage Bar on Sunday. Sheer volume of water rushing over the bar on the big tide was pretty impressive and swell had quite a bit of juice. Couldn't see any noticeable difference in terms of changed water depth on the day bacause of the tide size anyway.
Crew and self were keen to go and remained vigilant. Kept Raby Bsy VMR informed of conditions on the outside which they appreciated.
Big non event as expected, consistent with low change of sea height predicted by weather experts as per front page of Sunday Mail, read before heading to boat ramp.

Cheers
Bill

[BLOOEY]

I was totally unaware of this until i finished fishing the surf yesterday arvo and overheard people talking about it. Thought it was a bit bizarre to be the only one on the beach! Diddn't notice anything apart from a big tide and some hungry big dart that ate my slugs. Ben