Monday 16/2 "Variable 5-10" Weather offshore - I think not!

[Skusto]

we went out sunday arvo expecting to have a reasonable night followed by a magic monday. ended up with 2 pearlies at 3.5kg weighed and to at 2kg that was about it for the whole night ended up goin into to yellow patch for a kip the was goin to head out early morning till we headed round the cape into the nasty se wind decided we had enough for a feed and left. Sunday afternoon was magic out there!

[Just_chips]

This is the first time in a while the BOM has predicted the wind to be less than actual, usually they are atleast 5 - 10 knots above seabreeze and the actual weather on the day.

I believe that teh BOM forecast this was to avoid situations where they can be held accountable for somebody heading out in bad conditions and blaming the BOM for their own poor decision.

Kev

[Jeremy]

any idea how to predict weather??
any idea how hard it is to predict weather??
any idea how unstable the weather was last week/weekend.. ??

maybe you should actually read and understand the synoptic situation + weather maps add that to the BOM/seabreeze forecast and you will be much better off

i am not surprised at all how the weather turned out

Get real. I rely on the BOM to do that for me. I have a limited understanding of weather charts etc, but I am sure theirs is better. If they issue a FORECAST, there is a reasonable expectation that that is what the weather will be. If it is too hard, they should just say so.

Jeremy

[Moonlighter]

Hi Kokomo

Give me a break please.

I've been fishing the Bay and offshore for 30 years now and yes, I do look at the charts and form my own views about what seems likely to happen compared with the forecast - within reason!

But ultimately like everyone else I expect the bureau/seabreeze forecasts, less than 8 hours earlier, to be somewhere close to the mark, not 180 deg wrong like they were the other day.

If you're so good at this forecasting caper - you seem to know all the criteria for doing it - how come you're not working at the bureau?

Whoops, its just becaome clear to me was it your forecast we're all criticising?

ML

[ShaneC]

ML,
We were out there too, had a magic day Sunday and decided with the forecast the way it was we would back up and do it again Monday. We were actually coming back in around the Cape (one of the boys was a tad green), when someone mentioned on the VHF that the forecast had been updated. Ended up fishing the Trench for very little action..... but, as happens a lot, the trip back across the day was magic while it was still blowing its boobs off at the Cape.

You weren't alone mate.

[Horse]

maybe you should actually read and understand the synoptic situation + weather maps add that to the BOM/seabreeze forecast and you will be much better off

i am not surprised at all how the weather turned out

Congratulations kokomo . Even a broken clock is right twice a day

To suggest that you can predict the weather accuratly from the synoptic situation is pretty dodgy to say the least . I did a couple of climatology subjects at Uni and also work in an industry reliant on the vagaries of the weather. My staffing levels can vary by up to 500% due to changes in weather conditions. I watch what is happening several times a day as it is important to be able to predict changes. The modelling used by the forecasts is complex and they don't always get it right but it is a long way better than looking at outdated synoptic charts and trying to guess what is happening in the three dimensional dynamic atmoshere.
Most people get caught out at times but if you have been tracking a few of the forecasts then you should have a pretty good idea of what to expect

[Giveitacrack]

Mate ,off the southern goldy was a glass out til 1000hrs maybe 5 knots today..better luck next time.

[Smithy]

Called it off at the ramp just then for today. Came home and Seabreeze is still all green arrows and the BOM are 10-15s. DI and the Cape are showing around 20 of ESE. You can't win atm. Yesterday was a pearler.

[Jabba_]

Mate ,off the southern goldy was a glass out til 1000hrs maybe 5 knots today..better luck next time.

I'll second that.
It was glassed out conditions on Monday and Tuesday untill around 10:00-10:30...

[nautical prince]

i know that feeling wasted fuel time and having to clean the boat i look on the net at what the wind has done through the night and then i make my mind up allso try bouy weather it pretty good

[Moonlighter]

Kokomo seems to have disappeared off this thread, maybe an unexpected "change" got him/her?

[insideout]

yes ,ur not alone, we got smashed here in hervey bay also, travelling back from the southern gutters, took 2 .5 hours and alot of pounding... now i have gone back to default settings....do not go out on the day , if the day before was bad..