Monday 16/2 "Variable 5-10" Weather offshore - I think not!

[Moonlighter]

The Bureau forecast last night for offshore Moreton Bay said variable and light winds 5-10 knots today. Beauty!!

So we hit the water this morning, fang across the Bay at dawn, around Combie, along Moreton and lo and behold, there's 20 knots of SE at the Cape and white caps everywhere, wind whistling thru our guides!!

The radio call comes over the VHF that the 5.05am forecast has now changed to 15-20 knots SE!! Do tell!!

How on earth can the bureau get the forecast so wrong just 12 hours earlier? This isn't a small alteration, its a substantial change that with the technology they have you would think would have surely been predictable.

End result = wasted RDO amd 105 litres of unleaded down the gurgler, and no fish. Tahnks guys, a lot

Do you think they should be able to do better than this forecasting debacle?? I DO!!

ML

[frankgrimes]

Yep forcast def. looked the goods last night...this time of year though the weather is extremely unpredictable in QLD, very tough to predict with any degree of certainty even with the technology available.

Mick

[bigjimg]

Moonlighter try checking the weather station reports at the Cape before you head of from home.If you havn't got it 1300 360 428, press 1 once you hear the voice, then goes to the weather forecast,another couple of 1 presses will bring up the weather station reports. And yes it can be way off the mark sometimes just look at the strong wind warnings the week just gone.Have done some of the best fishing during strong wind warnings,at these times you can't complain can you.Jim

[red rock cod]

look on seabreeze . It gives you the wind reading at the cape and spitfire Channel

[Jeremy]

I absolutely agree though, BOM can't predict the next day's weather, let alone giving 3-7 day forecasts, that is just dreaming. You would think they could do alot better that that in 2009. Sh!ts you to tears doesn't it.

Jeremy

[Angla]

Many a day I have suffered in choppy weather when much better was predicted. Should I mention the days I have spent washing the car only to find a glass day has gone by when it was predicted to be choppy

I predict a turbulent year for weather conditions

Chris

[lethal098]

yeah agree completely, we were at the ramp at Mooloolaba at 3am with a bit of breeze from the SE, got out on the water and were faced with about 10 knot SE, we decided to punch into it expecting to see the wind drop, not a bad trip out to the banks, was easily fishable, not that there were many keepers, well when we turned for home well that hurt, 2 hours af smack and bang, still hurting now. yeah i think they should be able to predict a little better than that, surely it can t be that hard. cheers Lethal

[peterbo3]

Hi Lethal,
We were out at Murphys. The swell was a bit nasty - 2M plus with the odd one breaking. Plenty of fish but all undersize. Saw a few boats go past but we were on our own out there.

[michael_mad_fisho]

gday guys
messed ya dates up a bit there ML
i think we all have the skills to become a top notch weather man i heard all you have to do is walk out your front door lick your finger and take a stab at the wind speed hahaha

[lethal098]

peter, what time were you on the water??? we had 2 boats with us at the mid banks, i was in 5.5 centre console formosa(Jonno's boat aka Tuna Boy), and a mates 6.2 quinnie off shore, we also had a few breakers and truckloads of undersize red throat, 3 keepers and a couple of reefies. was not a fun ride home. cheers Lethal

[Muddy Toes]

Same story here. Left Noosa at day break yesterday with near perfect conditions, heading for the banks. Got past the heads and found everything that was predicted on BOM and Seabreeze was wrong. Wind was more like 25knts, waves over a meter and wind direction was also completely different to forecast. Only went 1/2 hour before we decided 2 more hours of that wouldn't be fun and decided to fish nearer reefs.

Wasted fuel, bait and time. Know how you feel ML. And yes, we did check seabreeze right before we left home at 1am and it said it was fine. When we got back to ramp at 10;30am we checked forecast again and wind and wave height had doubled. Now they tell us. Hopefully more pleasant fishing conditions for the Bank on Thursday.

MT

[Teachnthekids]

Seabreeze is normally closer to the mark than BOM but hey what do you expect from a mob that thinks that 50% chance of a shower is acceptable forcasting.

Spose they cant be wrong then.

Cheers
Rob

[peterbo3]

Lethal,
We were at Murphys from about 0900. Was hoping for a bit of action on the tide change around 1300. Only action was the wind picked up so we headed back about 1345. Lots of colour on the sounder but they liked it too much on the bottom.
I think I will be sticking to places like Murphys on doubtful days as it does fish well at times & is a lot closer than the Banks or Tempest. Even factoring in the drive from Albany Creek it is a viable option, more so when the fish will not play the game.
I was in the Fisher in my avatar.

[Rufus]

Hey to all,

As the weather can be so unpredictable and the forecasts so erratic I have a look at the following site. It is a lot closer to the mark then Seabreeze and BOM. Have a look and see what you think.

Regards, Rufus

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/94578.html

Scroll down the page to see daily forecasts

[kokomo]

any idea how to predict weather??
any idea how hard it is to predict weather??
any idea how unstable the weather was last week/weekend.. ??

maybe you should actually read and understand the synoptic situation + weather maps add that to the BOM/seabreeze forecast and you will be much better off

i am not surprised at all how the weather turned out