I don't think we necessarily will see a colapse but I can think of a few reasons it will receed house prices that could have a similar effects just not on as large a scale.
Below are my thoughts on why we will see house prices receed.
1. Pretty much through the whole Howard Government era Ausralians have become use to credit for eveything. They all have to have that plasma, that new car, that what ever now! So what do they do? Get finance instead of saving for it.
This is what drives inflation up and increases credit card debt.
2. With this economic boom that is ending now people didn't throw as much of those extra dollars into thier house loans as with most people the lifestyle went with the budget a the time.
This is driving ever bigger record debt for houses.
3. Throughout the boom realestate agents helped drive house prices up and we the public ate it up hoping that the increase would continue. Some made a sh!te load of cash off (as investments) it, but the result was a huge ratio increase in property value versus rental income. (traditionaly ratio was .001% of house value as a rule) So a 400k house roughly rented for 400 a week. Not so now + House prices IMHO are 20-30% over priced. (try telling that to a realestate agent)
4. Australian banks whilst far more regulated than the US and don't have subprime problems. The credit crunch means they can't get the cheap money they were getting before. Hence why they recently have been screwing over thier customers and looking after the sharholders by holding back rate cuts.
At the end of the day if Australians all tightened thier belts and smashed everything they could into their homeloans and limmited credit card debt we would be fine. The government uses interest rates to keep control of inflation and sooner or later if the public keeps the spending spree going they have to keep the rates going up to stop it. That means less people can afford to own a home at the inflated house and interest rate prices and start getting out = lower house prices and people go back to living with mum and dad while the storms are here.
Just my thoughts.
P.S. Sad to hear another boat dealer gone
Cheers
Chris