gone

[tigermullet]

Deadstick, I could agree with everything you have just said but this -
"No one could have predicted the down turn we have just seen & no one can even tell you when it may end or how bad it is going to get."

The predictions for this event have been made over and over for the last three years. Since June 2007 the month (and even the day) on which the sequence would commence has been splashed all over the Internet.

How else could I have known since 2007 that the October/November period in 2007would be the beginning of the end of the cycle?

October 1st 2008 has been 'out there' as the start of the second fall since March 2008.

What comes next? More fall off until the first week of December, then a rally until about February 2009.

Not that I'm betting on it because, just now, there is a significant danger period around the 21st November. That could be a 'game altering' show.

The exact dates of turning points are not all that important because the end result is certain. This is not a game of relative advantage any longer, it is one of financial survival.

Good luck to all.

[tin can marlin]

Well done for the manger of hinterland to come on. I would think that people are looking for value in there boats at the moment and products like haines hunter have priced themselves out of the market are hurting dealers etc.I think they will be better of with the valued based products they have at there other shop like allison. Anyway good luck and i hope it picks up for you.

[Mindi]

What I am worried about is that i see no evidence that we are at the worst of this yet. In Australia we have not yet seen the property price collapse which has accompanied US and UK experience and we probably will in 2009. If we get houses dropping in value below their debt burden as happened in US starting the subprime crisis we may still be to have our worst to come. I know that is an unwelcome thought but 2009 could be ugly for Australia with many more businesses closing and not through bad management, just that their business model cant operate with very low turnover. I hope I am totally wrong, and my sympathies to Hinterland and Satisfaction's operators who must be gutted.....and their staff.

[Mindi]

So the gone list is now

Mr Ts
NU-Marine
Sundown Marine
Westside Marine
Northside Marine (Gold Coast branch)
Avante Marine (Labrador branch)
Satisfaction Marine
Hinterland Marine (Gold Coast branch)

[PinHead]

of those that have closed, it would be interesting to see which (if any) were operating during the previous cresit squeeze..when was that? 1984 I think.not quite sure on that one.

[Noelm]

Amost all of what is said is true, but businesses do fail regularly for a variety of reasons, some bad management, some bad service, some under capitalised from the start, some due to influence way beyond anyones control, the place I worked when I left school (and did 2 10year plus stints) was started way back in the 1930's by a guy that saw a need for a service/product (what it was is a story in itself) but over the years the place changed and moved in different directions to maintain constant custom, we offered a range of services and products that over the period untill they sold out (the youngest son was almost 70 years old) it was still going strong, not too many family owned companies would still be going after such a huge time frame I would reckon, the owners philosphy was fairly simple really, NOTHING was on credit except the normal monthly invoice system from wholesalers, wages were paid in CASH, vehicles were purchsed when needed, paid for with CASH, no leasing!!plain and simple things like that, not everyones cup of tea, and probaly not really applicable in todays bussiness world (or is it?) but very sound principals and it worked for over 70 years

[Mtx]

I have an idea... Let's all speculate about why the business may have gone under without having any actual knowledge of the situation.

Also let's speculate on if the staff received entitlements or not.

Maybe as another train of thought, these were actually good business people and this is them going by their exit strategy to ensure all creditors get paid and also ensure all the staff get their entitlements.

Or we could just keep guessing.

[Noelm]

that's sort of what I was saying, businesses fail for all sorts of reasons, not just bad management, some even fail on purpose! so without knowing the ins and outs of it all, then we can only hope everyone gets what they are due!

[finding_time]

What I am worried about is that i see no evidence that we are at the worst of this yet. In Australia we have not yet seen the property price collapse which has accompanied US and UK experience and we probably will in 2009. If we get houses dropping in value below their debt burden as happened in US starting the subprime crisis we may still be to have our worst to come. I know that is an unwelcome thought but 2009 could be ugly for Australia with many more businesses closing and not through bad management, just that their business model cant operate with very low turnover. I hope I am totally wrong, and my sympathies to Hinterland and Satisfaction's operators who must be gutted.....and their staff.

Why will Aus experience a property collapse? Australia is a totally differant market to the US. For starters we dont have over 600 000 empty houses ,in fact if anything we have a housing shortage!

It is very very simplistic to compare Australia's domestic driven economy to that of the states and in fact according to many economists ,if the average australian just got on with life and stopped listening to the doom sayers much of the hardship could be avoided! I personally have just had the 2 busiest months of the last 3 years thing aren't that bad really! I do how ever believe that the service industrys will take a bit of a hit in the comming years and i do feel for any that have brought a mowing, cleaning, dog washing franshize as they will be hurting!

[Mindi]

Why will Aus experience a property collapse? Australia is a totally differant market to the US. For starters we dont have over 600 000 empty houses ,in fact if anything we have a housing shortage!

It is very very simplistic to compare Australia's domestic driven economy to that of the states and in fact according to many economists ,if the average australian just got on with life and stopped listening to the doom sayers much of the hardship could be avoided! I personally have just had the 2 busiest months of the last 3 years thing aren't that bad really! I do how ever believe that the service industrys will take a bit of a hit in the comming years and i do feel for any that have brought a mowing, cleaning, dog washing franshize as they will be hurting!

well.......OK

[Grand_Marlin]

Are you going to let your dog stink now Ian?

cheers
pete

[PinHead]

I have an idea... Let's all speculate about why the business may have gone under without having any actual knowledge of the situation.

Also let's speculate on if the staff received entitlements or not.

Maybe as another train of thought, these were actually good business people and this is them going by their exit strategy to ensure all creditors get paid and also ensure all the staff get their entitlements.

Or we could just keep guessing.

why not play guesses...part of all the fun!!!!!!

[sid_fishes]

guys, when i made the 1st post, it wasnt so you could all go and play the guessing game,speculate about this and that. i was in fact stunned by what i had heard and seen , satisfaction where a great place, shit my boat was serviced there.like ian [finding time] said why do we all listen to what the states dictate.
cheers guys
sid

[OPTI]

So the gone list is now

Mr Ts
NU-Marine
Sundown Marine
Westside Marine
Northside Marine (Gold Coast branch)
Avante Marine (Labrador branch)
Satisfaction Marine
Hinterland Marine (Gold Coast branch)

i herd today leisure marine and currimbin tinnies are also now on the list .
not a good time to be a boat dealer or manufacturer for that matter ,even cobalt boats in the us went down just recently ,i think its only the tip of the ice berg unfortunatly

[seabug]

I was in Raymond Terrace (NSW)on Monday and was told that two boat retailers,in that general area, had closed in the last 2 weeks.
The reason being that the finance companies would no longer supply floor finance.

Rottten luck that immoral conduct in London and New York can ruin people.

Regards
seabug